Quantitative knowledge about health damage due to air pollution is an important element in analyses of cost‐effective abatement strategies, and is also essential for setting Air Quality Standards. Epidemiological studies, in spite of the numerous problems connected to them, provide a reasonable basis for exposure‐response functions in this context. On the basis of a literature review, exposure‐response functions that relate ambient air pollutant concentrations to the frequency of various health effects are recommended in this paper. The following end‐points were examined: Acute and chronic respiratory symptoms in children and adults, crude mortality, and lung cancer incidence. The effects are attributed to one indicator component, which in most cases is particles. A calculation procedure is suggested which makes it possible to estimate excess annual symptom‐days for short‐term effects using the annual average concentration.
ABSTRACTSolid fuel burning in households is a leading health risk for people in developing countries. Several studies of indoor air pollution from solid fuels have analyzed the problem at the village and household level, but to design effective policies it is important to understand the large-scale socioeconomic drivers of household air pollution (HAP). Using county-level data covering all of China, we examine relationships between socioeconomic variables and ambient concentrations of PM and SO2 resulting from household energy use. Applying both non-parametric and parametric techniques, we find that income and education are robust determinants of HAP; structural characteristics affect the HAP turning points; and the poorest counties bear a disproportionate amount of total pollution, especially urban counties and counties located in the coastal provinces.
AbstractThis introduction provides an overview and analysis of key scientific data regarding air pollution in China. It constitutes a reference for understanding how policymakers, media and population in China make sense of and deal with air pollution, as discussed in the other articles of the section. We summarize the major characteristics and trends regarding air pollution in China, including its main sources and composition, levels of population exposure across the country, attributable mortality, and mitigation efforts. We also compare current levels of air pollution in China with other parts of the world and in a historical perspective. While the situation remains dire in many regions, particularly the Northeast, we conclude that there are signs of relief, or at least a halt to the increase in ambient air pollution levels. At the same time, critical issues regarding unequal levels of exposure remain, and health damaging levels of air pollution in cities will undoubtedly remain high for a long time to come. The rural population residing in areas close to industry and polluted cities and still depending on solid household fuels will likely be the worst off when it comes to air pollution exposure.
Air pollution in Chinese cities has become a major topic of public debate and political concern. At the same time, few rural areas are subjected to measurements of ambient air quality, and policy documents and media rarely discuss the health and environmental risks caused by household air pollution (HAP) produced by the use of biomass for cooking and heating. Between 2014 and 2017 a cross-disciplinary team carried out a joint study of air quality and perceptions of air pollution in one of China's richest provinces, Zhejiang. We found that the ambient PM2.5 concentration in the rural villages was similar to that in the urban areas. Moreover, the 24-hour mean personal exposure to particulate pollution (PM2.5) was similar for urban and rural participants in total. However, we found indications of enhanced exposure levels in certain sub-groups, such as biomass users, women, and family cooks. We found that while villagers were strongly concerned about risks of air pollution coming from nearby factories, they were largely unaware of the problem of HAP. In this article, we analyse to what extent HAP contributes to the air pollution exposure in the areas studied, and we discuss possible reasons why it has largely remained a hidden hazard. In the conclusion, we suggest that air pollution in rural areas should receive more attention from media, environmental organizations and policy makers; furthermore, that HAP in particular should be incorporated into air pollution policies to a greater extent, and its contribution to air pollution exposure in rural areas be made more publicly known.
Facing the mounting pressure on energy security and increasing environmental concerns about air pollution and climate change, the Chinese government set a mandatory goal of 20% reduction of energy intensity in its 11th Five-Year Plan period (FYP, 2006–2010). In this paper we use Shanxi province to illustrate how policies and measures are implemented in practice at a provincial level as a response to the National FYP issued by the central government. Local policies are described and their effects are analyzed. We compare reported energy saving achievements with our own estimates and conclude that the achievements in Shanxi probably have been substantial since the start of the 11th FYP period. The most important measures taken by provincial and local governments seem to be in the secondary sector, such as Top-200/Top-1000 program and phasing out outdated technologies. However, Shanxi has still a long way to go to achieve satisfactory energy use. Further improvement of energy intensity will require continuing efforts. Although many measures are necessary, improving the energy efficiency in heavy industries and reducing the dependence on these industries should be particularly effective. ; NOTICE: this is the author's version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy Policy. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy Policy,39(7),(2011). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.085
Abstract. Heat stress in cities is projected to strongly increase due to climate change. The associated health risks will be exacerbated by the high population density in cities and the urban heat island effect. However, impacts are still uncertain, which is among other factors due to the existence of multiple metrics for quantifying ambient heat and the typically rather coarse spatial resolution of climate models. Here we investigate projections of ambient heat for 36 major European cities based on a recently produced ensemble of regional climate model simulations for Europe (EURO-CORDEX) at 0.11° spatial resolution (∼ 12.5 km). The 0.11° EURO-CORDEX ensemble provides the best spatial resolution currently available from an ensemble of climate model projections for the whole of Europe and makes it possible to analyse the risk of temperature extremes and heat waves at the city level. We focus on three temperature-based heat metrics – yearly maximum temperature, number of days with temperatures exceeding 30 °C, and Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) – to analyse projections of ambient heat at 3 °C warming in Europe compared to 1981–2010 based on climate data from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble. The results show that southern European cities will be particularly affected by high levels of ambient heat, but depending on the considered metric, cities in central, eastern, and northern Europe may also experience substantial increases in ambient heat. In several cities, projections of ambient heat vary considerably across the three heat metrics, indicating that estimates based on a single metric might underestimate the potential for adverse health effects due to heat stress. Nighttime ambient heat, quantified based on daily minimum temperatures, shows similar spatial patterns to daytime conditions, albeit with substantially higher HWMId values. The identified spatial patterns of ambient heat are generally consistent with results from global Earth system models, though with substantial differences for individual cities. Our results emphasise the value of high-resolution climate model simulations for analysing climate extremes at the city level. At the same time, they highlight that improving the predominantly rather simple representations of urban areas in climate models would make their simulations even more valuable for planning adaptation measures in cities. Further, our results stress that using complementary metrics for projections of ambient heat gives important insights into the risk of future heat stress that might otherwise be missed.
In future agreements to cut greenhouse gases, a Chinese commitment will probably be essential. Committing for China is easier if the cost is low and the benefit to China is high. Using a new CGE-model of the Chinese economy we discuss the cost and benefit to China of taking on a climate commitment. We argue that a climate commitment gives significant ancillary benefits to China since associated particle and NOx-reductions improve public health and increase agricultural yields. The model of impact on agricultural yields is a novel feature of CGE-models. Comparing benefits to economic costs produces striking results. We find that China may reduce its CO2-emissions by 17.5 per cent without suffering a welfare loss. Half of the benefit originates in the novel agricultural model. We also discuss the distributional impact of a climate commitment. In general the distributional impact is not averse.
Background: The Cameroon government has set a target that, by 2030, 58% of the population will be using Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a cooking fuel, in comparison with less than 20% in 2014. The National LPG Master Plan (Master Plan) was developed for scaling up the LPG sector to achieve this target. Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the potential impacts of this planned LPG expansion (the Master Plan) on population health and climate change mitigation, assuming primary, sustained use of LPG for daily cooking. Methods: We applied existing and developed new mathematical models to calculate the health and climate impacts of expanding LPG primary adoption for household cooking in Cameroon over two periods: a) short-term (2017–2030): Comparing the Master Plan 58% target with a counterfactual LPG adoption of 32% in 2030, in line with current trends; and b) long-term (2031–2100, climate modeling only), assuming Cameroon will become a mature and saturated LPG market by 2100 (73% adoption, based on Latin American countries). We compared this with a counterfactual adoption of 41% by 2100, in line with current trends. Results: By 2030, successful implementation of the Master Plan was estimated to avert about 28,000 (minimum=22,000, maximum=35,000) deaths and 770,000 (minimum=580,000maximum=1 million) disability-adjusted life years. For the same period, we estimated reductions in pollutant emissions of more than a third in comparison with the counterfactual, leading to a global cooling of −0.1 milli °C in 2030. For 2100, a cooling impact from the Master Plan leading to market saturation (73%) was estimated to be −0.70 milli °C in comparison with to the counterfactual, with a range of −0.64 to −0.93 milli °C based on different fractions of nonrenewable biomass. Discussion: Successful implementation of the Master Plan could have significant positive impacts on population health in Cameroon with no adverse impacts on climate. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899 ; publishedVersion
BACKGROUND: The Cameroon government has set a target that, by 2030, 58% of the population will be using Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a cooking fuel, in comparison with less than 20% in 2014. The National LPG Master Plan (Master Plan) was developed for scaling up the LPG sector to achieve this target. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the potential impacts of this planned LPG expansion (the Master Plan) on population health and climate change mitigation, assuming primary, sustained use of LPG for daily cooking. METHODS: We applied existing and developed new mathematical models to calculate the health and climate impacts of expanding LPG primary adoption for household cooking in Cameroon over two periods: a) short-term (2017–2030): Comparing the Master Plan 58% target with a counterfactual LPG adoption of 32% in 2030, in line with current trends; and b) long-term (2031–2100, climate modeling only), assuming Cameroon will become a mature and saturated LPG market by 2100 (73% adoption, based on Latin American countries). We compared this with a counterfactual adoption of 41% by 2100, in line with current trends. RESULTS: By 2030, successful implementation of the Master Plan was estimated to avert about 28,000 ([Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text]) deaths and 770,000 ([Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]) disability-adjusted life years. For the same period, we estimated reductions in pollutant emissions of more than a third in comparison with the counterfactual, leading to a global cooling of [Formula: see text] in 2030. For 2100, a cooling impact from the Master Plan leading to market saturation (73%) was estimated to be [Formula: see text] in comparison with to the counterfactual, with a range of [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] based on different fractions of nonrenewable biomass. DISCUSSION: Successful implementation of the Master Plan could have significant positive impacts on population health in Cameroon with no adverse impacts on climate. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899
Stricter commitments for GHG emissions in the post-Kyoto period will contribute to reduced emissions of air pollutants in the Nordic countries, avoided costs for end-of-pipe abatement to reach a specific target, and benefits for ecosystems and human health. However, reductions in emissions in the Nordic countries are smaller than in other regions since use of the flexible mechanisms implies a shift in GHG abatement, and co-benefits, to other regions – in particular Russia and Eastern Europe. On the other hand, the Nordic countries benefit from reductions in emissions in other regions. Expanding the number of sectors included in the emission trading scheme will imply increased air pollutant emissions and less benefits to ecosystems. If EU and Norway are involved in a climate policy cooperation not involving other regions, this will imply that more greenhouse gas emission reductions are undertaken in the Nordic countries with subsequent reductions in air pollutant emissions. This would benefit ecosystems in southern Scandinavia, but acidification would increase in the north because of increased emissions in Russia. For human exposure to PM2.5, road transport is particularly important and this source is less influenced by the options for climate policies. Therefore, as long as post-Kyoto climate policies are unknown, there are large uncertainties about the required costs to achieve different level of air pollutant emissions, ecosystem protection and human exposure in 2020. A large part of this uncertainty comes from the degree of Russian and Eastern Europe climate policy cooperation.
Facing the increasing environmental degradation locally and globally, the Chinese government set mandatory goals of 10% reduction of SO2 emission in its 11th Five-Year Plan period (FYP, 2006–2010). In this paper we use Shanxi province to illustrate how policies and measures are implemented in practice at a provincial level as a response to the National FYP issued by the central government. Local policies are described and their effects are analyzed. We find that the 11th FYP goal for SO2 pollution reduction in Shanxi has been surpassed. SO2 reduction from estimated baseline level was calculated for the FYP period in order to identify which sectors have had the largest reductions. Regarding SO2, we find that Flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) in power plants has been the most important, while either the FGD operation rate or the efficiency, or both, are much lower in practice than officially required. SO2 emission reduction from closing down outdated production capacity is small according to our estimates. This is due to the comparatively small use of coal in the units being closed down in Shanxi. Necessary steps to achieve the targets in the 12th FYP are briefly discussed ; "NOTICE: this is the author's version of a work that was accepted for publication in Environmental Developmen. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Environmental Development;4. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2012.09.002"
To tackle the severe fine particle (PM2.5) pollution in China, the government has implemented stringent control policies mainly on power plants, industry, and transportation since 2005, but estimates of the effectiveness of the policy and the temporal trends in health impacts are subject to large uncertainties. By adopting an integrated approach that combines chemical transport simulation, ambient/household exposure evaluation, and health-impact assessment, we find that the integrated population-weighted exposure to PM2.5 (IPWE) decreased by 47% (95% confidence interval, 37-55%) from 2005 [180 (146-219) μg/m3] to 2015 [96 (83-111) μg/m3]. Unexpectedly, 90% (86-93%) of such reduction is attributed to reduced household solid-fuel use, primarily resulting from rapid urbanization and improved incomes rather than specific control policies. The IPWE due to household fuels for both cooking and heating decreased, but the impact of cooking is significantly larger. The reduced household-related IPWE is estimated to avoid 0.40 (0.25-0.57) million premature deaths annually, accounting for 33% of the PM2.5-induced mortality in 2015. The IPWE would be further reduced by 63% (57-68%) if the remaining household solid fuels were replaced by clean fuels, which would avoid an additional 0.51 (0.40-0.64) million premature deaths. Such a transition to clean fuels, especially for heating, requires technology innovation and policy support to overcome the barriers of high cost of distribution systems, as is recently being attempted in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. We suggest that household-fuel use be more highly prioritized in national control policies, considering its effects on PM2.5 exposures.
